Despite the clear description of At Risk Mental States (AMRS) for a couple of decades, the ability to predict which individuals will progress to full-blown psychosis is less certain.  This systematic review of 16 articles from 9 studies found that 1 in 6 young people had transitioned to psychosis at 5-year follow-up, but that sampling/recruitment strategies may have been more related to this risk than AMRS criteria.

Lång, U., Yates, K., Leacy, F. P., Clarke, M. C., McNicholas, F., Cannon, M., & Kelleher, I. (2021). Systematic review and meta-analysis: psychosis risk in children and adolescents with an at-risk mental state. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry.

https://www.jaacap.org/article/S0890-8567(21)01066-2/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email